Baseline Tumor Lipiodol Uptake after Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Identification of a Threshold Value Predicting Tumor Recurrence

Background The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between baseline Lipiodol uptake in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with early tumor recurrence, and to identify a threshold baseline uptake value predicting tumor response. Patients and methods A single-institution retrospective database of HCC treated with Lipiodol-TACE was reviewed. Forty-six tumors in 30 patients treated with a Lipiodol-chemotherapy emulsion and no additional particle embolization were included. Baseline Lipiodol uptake was measured as the mean Hounsfield units (HU) on a CT within one week after TACE. Washout rate was calculated dividing the difference in HU between the baseline CT and follow-up CT by time (HU/month). Cox proportional hazard models were used to correlate baseline Lipiodol uptake and other variables with tumor response. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the optimal threshold for baseline Lipiodol uptake predicting tumor response. Results During the follow-up period (mean 5.6 months), 19 (41.3%) tumors recurred (mean time to recurrence = 3.6 months). In a multivariate model, low baseline Lipiodol uptake and higher washout rate were significant predictors of early tumor recurrence (P = 0.001 and < 0.0001, respectively). On ROC analysis, a threshold Lipiodol uptake of 270.2 HU was significantly associated with tumor response (95% sensitivity, 93% specificity). Conclusions Baseline Lipiodol uptake and washout rate on follow-up were independent predictors of early tumor recurrence. A threshold value of baseline Lipiodol uptake > 270.2 HU was highly sensitive and specific for tumor response. These findings may prove useful for determining subsequent treatment strategies after Lipiodol TACE.